Sunday, December 29, 2013

NFL Week 17 Picks

Carolina over ATLANTA

CINCINNATI over Baltimore

TENNESSEE over Houston

INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville

MIAMI over New York Jets

Detroit over MINNESOTA

NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington

PITTSBURGH over Cleveland

Green Bay over CHICAGO

Denver over OAKLAND

NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo

NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay

San Francisco over ARIZONA

Kansas City over SAN DIEGO

SEATTLE over St. Louis

Philadelphia over DALLAS

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 148-92

Sunday, December 22, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

Miami over BUFFALO

New Orleans over CAROLINA

Dallas over WASHINGTON

ST. LOUIS over Tampa Bay


NEW YORK JETS over Cleveland

KANSAS CITY over Indianapolis

CINCINNATI over Minnesota

Denver over Houston

JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee

SEATTLE over Arizona

DETROIT over New York Giants

SAN DIEGO over Oakland

GREEN BAY over Pittsburgh

New England over Baltimore

SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 139-85

Home team in CAPS

Thursday, December 12, 2013

NFL Week 15 Picks: Detroit Lions To Best Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night

San Diego (6-7) at Denver (11-2)

The Broncos keep churning, as they put up 51 points last week.

The Chargers got a victory against the Giants, but the Broncos are better than the Giants and they're even harder to beat at home.

Denver wins.

Washington (3-10) at Atlanta (3-10)

Kirk Cousins may be the shot in the arm the Redskins need, but this is a team that lost by 35 points at home last week.

The Falcons couldn't edge out Green Bay last week but at home they have a good shot against the Redskins.

Atlanta wins.

Arizona (8-5) at Tennessee (5-8)

After losing to the Eagles, the Cardinals picked themselves up with a 30 point victory over the Rams. Is it possible the NFC West gets three playoff teams? The Cardinals are in the hunt.

The Titans had a tough task against the Broncos last week. The team hasn't showed much promise since Jake Locker was injured for the season, though. There's even rumors of cutting Chris Johnson after this season.

Arizona wins.

San Francisco (9-4) at Tampa Bay (4-9)

The 49ers squeaked out a big victory over the Seahawks last week. Frank Gore had a monster day rushing the ball and although the team only had 155 yards passing, Anquan Boldin still managed to reel in 93 yards receiving.

The Buccaneers won again last week, but the 49ers are a playoff team and if they want to prove they are a legitimate championship contender, this is a game they have to win.

San Francisco wins.

New Orleans (10-3) at St. Louis (5-8)

Since winning two consecutive games to close out November, the Rams have lost two in a row. They are also only 3-3 at home this season.

The Saints just had a strong showing against the Panthers, beating them by 18 and ending their eight game winning streak.

The Saints are the stronger team and will show it.

New Orleans wins.

Seattle (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8)

The Seahawks lost for the first time in two months, but they should be able to get back on track against the Giants.

The Giants were eliminated from playoff contention last week after losing to the Chargers.

While the Seahawks are second in the league in takewaways, the Giants lead the league in turnovers and Eli Manning is first in the NFC in interceptions thrown.

Seattle wins.

Chicago (7-6) at Cleveland (4-9)

The Bears put up an impressive 45 points last week against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense isn't that good, but Chicago did what it needed to to take advantage of it. Alshon Jeffrey has been very impressive lately.

The Browns fought hard against the Patriots, but in the end it was another loss.

Expect the Bears to continue to ride the momentum from last week.

Chicago wins.

Houston (2-11) at Indianapolis (8-5)

Last week, after the Texans' loss to the Jaguars I tweeted, "Why do I keep picking the #Texans to win games? #NFL".

If something is broken, it's time to change. The Texans front office fired the head coach and I'm picking against them, which is easy to do when they play the division leading Colts on the road.

Indianapolis wins.

Buffalo (4-9) at Jacksonville (4-9)

The Jaguars have won four of their past five games, an amazing feat considering how futile they looked at the beginning of the season.

They now have the same record as the Bills, who have lost five of their past six games, including three losses in a row on the road.

When I finally pick the Jaguars, conventional wisdom says that will be the week they lose, but the Bills are just playing that poorly lately.

Jacksonville wins.

New England (10-3) at Miami (7-6)

Bill Belichick recently said about the Dolphins that despite the bullying media firestorm earlier this season, the Dolphins are still taking care of business.

While the Dolphins have won games and are very much in the playoff race, they haven't been very convincing doing so. The team isn't consistent and still makes enough mistakes that good teams should be able to capitalize on. They also don't fare as well against teams with winning records.

New England wins.

Philadelphia (8-5) at Minnesota (3-9-1)

The Vikings gave a spirited effort against the Ravens last week, but fell short. There's also the question of how effective Adrian Peterson will be after suffering an ankle injury, if he even plays at all.

The Eagles are rolling and the Vikings don't seem to be good enough this year to stop them.

Philadelphia wins.

Kansas City (10-3) at Oakland (4-9)

The Raiders may be better at home than on the road, but they still lost to the Jets last week. They even allowed the Jets, a team that is 31st in the league in points scored, to put up 37 points last week.

The Chiefs scored 45 points of their own on the road last week and should have another successful outing this week.

Kansas City wins.

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina (9-4)

The Panthers had their winning streak stopped last week and they went down with a whimper.

Conversely the Jets ended their losing streak, scored their largest point total to date and won by double digits.

Still, I expect things to go back to normal for these teams this week. The Panthers get homefield advantage and the Jets seem to give the ball away like candy on the road.

Carolina wins.

Green Bay (6-6-1) at Dallas (7-6)

It looks like Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to play for the Packers this weekend, which is good news for the porous Cowboys secondary.

The Cowboys were embarrassed in prime time last week. What works in their favor this week is that they are home. The Cowboys are 5-1 at home, with the only loss coming in the high scoring thriller against Denver, who was undefeated at the time.

The Packers are 2-4 on the road this year and are 1-4-1 since the beginning of November.

Dallas wins.

Cincinnati (9-4) at Pittsburgh (5-8)

The Bengals are only 3-4 on the road and 2-2 against the division. That could be worrisome, but the Steelers are also 2-2 against the division and only 3-3 at home. It's not a losing record, but it's not dominant either.

The Bengals are the division leaders, beat the Steelers earlier in the season, and are coming off a huge win against the Colts.

The Steelers on the other hand have lost two in a row, including last week when they blew a late lead at home against the Dolphins.

Cincinnati wins.

Baltimore (7-6) at Detroit (7-6)

The Ravens are fighting for a wild card spot but they are 1-5 on the road this season. That should bode well for the struggling Lions.

Detroit is 1-3 in its past four games, but the Lions are 4-2 at home this year. Stafford has thrown one more touchdown at home than on the road (in one fewer game) and has 345.2 yards passing per game at home compared to 236.4 passing yards per game on the road.

If he can keep his turnovers down, the Lions could be in a good position to win this game.

Detroit wins.

Last Week: 11-5

Overall: 131-77

Thursday, December 5, 2013

NFL Week 14 Picks: New Orleans Saints to Come Up Big Against Carolina Panthers

Houston (2-10) at Jacksonville (3-9)

The Jaguars have won three of their past four games. Who saw that coming?

The Texans have lost 10 in a row, including two weeks ago against the Jaguars at home.

Momentum seems to be in Jacksonville’s favor, but the Texans have shown that they refuse to give up. Their last sixes are all by only one score. People may say there are no sentimental victories in the NFL but if you keep plugging enough, one of those bounces is bound to go your way.

Houston running back Ben Tate had a huge week last week and the Jaguars are 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game.

Houston wins.

Indianapolis (8-4) at Cincinnati (8-4)

Both teams are division leaders but haven’t been the most consistent teams this season. The turnover battle will be key in this game.

Four games ago, Andrew Luck had three interceptions against the Rams. It was a bad performance but it was still more of an anomaly for this season. It was the only time this season he had more than one interception in a game, compared to six games where he hasn’t thrown an interception at all.

Andy Dalton has only two games this season where he hasn’t thrown a pick. He has four games where he’s thrown two or more interceptions, three of which have come in the past four games.

Indianapolis is a plus-six in turnover differential, while Cincinnati is a minus-one.

Indianapolis wins.

Cleveland (4-8) at New England (9-3)

The Browns don't have any of the first three quarterbacks are all hurt. Jason Campbell just began practicing but wasn’t cleared at the beginning of the week. Against a division leader like the Patriots, who keep finding a way to win close games, that just spells out trouble.

New England wins.

Oakland (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)

The Jets can run the ball with Chris Ivory, but they just don't give him enough touches, especially early in the game.

Turnovers doom this offense, and while the Raiders aren't the strongest team in the league, they do have the ability to move the ball.

With Rex Ryan benching Geno Smith last week, with all the turnovers and missed opportunities, with the current losing streak, the Jets do not inspire confidence no matter who the opposition is.

Oakland wins.

Atlanta (3-9) at Green Bay (5-6-1)

It’s possible Aaron Rodgers returns soon and the Packers still have a chance to get in the playoffs. They absolutely need a win here. Without Rodgers they need to grind it out.

Eddie Lacey is having a very good rookie season, and the Packers are eighth in the league in rushing yards per game.

On the other hand, the Falcons are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Last week was Atlanta’s first victory since Week 7. The Packers, at home, should also be aided by a dome team (Atlanta) playing in the cold December of Green Bay.

Green Bay wins.

Detroit (7-5) at Philadelphia (7-5)

The Eagles are on a roll, wining four in a row. Nick Foles is cementing himself as the Eagles starting quarterback and he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season.

The Lions have been average this season: some good games, some bad games, and no real streaks, winning or losing. But Matthew Stafford has not looked sharp as of late. He has six interceptions in his past two games and 10 interceptions in his past five games.

The Eagles are finally taking care of business at home, and their overall play has been much better recently than that of the Lions.

Philadelphia wins.

Miami (6-6) at Pittsburgh (5-7)

The Dolphins play calling has been suspect this season but it seems like they are finally starting to get the passing game going.

The offensive line looked better against the Jets last week, even if they didn't have an ideal performance. More importantly, they finally have gotten Mike Wallace involved in the offense. After having only one touchdown through the first 12 weeks of the season, he has one in each of the team's past two games. Not only has Wallace performed well, but when Miami gets him involved it opens up the field further for Charles Clay and Brian Hartline, who have had some big weeks this season.

Pittsburgh's defense has showed its age this season and doesn't have the same momentum that the Dolphins currently have.

Miami wins.

Buffalo (4-8) at Tampa Bay (3-9)

The Bills have four wins, but they keep finding ways to lose games. They had the Falcons on the ropes last week but couldn't put them away. Holding on to the football is crucial and the Bills let the ball and the game slip through their hands last week.

The Buccaneers return home, which should help them bounce back from last weekend's loss. Mike Glennon seems to have developed a good relationship with Vincent Jackson and they should have a good game against the Bills.

Tampa Bay wins.

Kansas City (9-3) at Washington (3-9)

The Redskins defense cannot stop the pass. It's the same story week in and week out.

While the Chiefs have gone into a rut, Alex Smith put on a good performance last week against the Broncos. Against a team of the caliber of the Redskins, the Chiefs should finally be able to get back on track.

Kansas City wins.

Minnesota (3-8-1) at Baltimore (6-6)

The Vikings have played in two consecutive overtime games and are 1-0-1. It's been a pleasant surprise for Minnesota compared to the rest of the season.

The Ravens were very shaky in the beginning of the season, but they've been on the winning side more often than not in recent weeks, especially at home. They seem to be putting things together, despite still struggling in the running game.

Baltimore wins.

Tennessee (5-7) at Denver (10-2)

The Broncos beat the Chiefs last weekend for the second time in three weeks. All season, they have looked like one of the best teams in the league.

At home against an inconsistent team like the Titans, it is hard to think Tennessee will top the Broncos.

Denver wins.

St. Louis (5-7) at Arizona (7-5)

The Rams have put forth some spirited efforts this season, but last week they were brought back down to Earth.

While the Cardinals did lose last week, it was on the road to a very hot Philadelphia team.

At home, they should be able to bounce back. Michael Floyd has developed into a good wideout this year with Carson Palmer at quarterback, and he's benefited from being on the opposite side of Larry Fitzgerald.

Arizona wins.

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego (5-7)

The Giants are working on a shortened week, were away last week and travel to the West Coast this week. It's not an ideal schedule.

Although the Giants won last week and the Chargers lost, both teams have been inconsistent this season. With home field advantage and an extra day of rest, the Chargers should have the edge in this one.

San Diego wins.

Seattle (11-1) at San Francisco (8-4)

The Seahawks are 11-1, but they have had some rough games this season where big comebacks late have been necessary.

Against winning teams like the Saints and 49ers, however, the Seahawks have blown them out of the water.

Both of those wins did come at home for the Seahawks, and the 49ers have improved as the season has gone on, especially the efficiency of their passing game.

Still, the Seahawks defense seems to be firing away without any issues. They've stymied teams, particularly in the passing game, and have already handled the 49ers once this season.

Seattle wins.

Carolina (9-3) at New Orleans (9-3)

The Panthers are on a roll, but Drew Brees and the Saints seem to always rise to the occasion during home games in prime time.

New Orleans wins.

Dallas (7-5) at Chicago (6-6)

Even with Alshon Jeffrey's huge game last week, the Bears found a way to let the game go to overtime and lose. That's been happening a lot in recent weeks.

The Cowboys have taken care of business in recent weeks and have a little bit of extra rest since they played on Thanksgiving.

Dallas wins.

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 120-72