With power restored after Hurricane Sandy it’s time to post some picks on the blog.
The marquee match-up this weekend is the 7-1 Texans against
the 7-1 Bears Sunday night in Chicago. Both teams have had some pretty
dominating performances (except against the Packers) and it should be a tight
game.
There are a couple of big divisional match-ups this weekend
as well as the Eagles take on the Cowboys and the Saints take on the Falcons.
Who do you think will win this weekend?
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
New York Giants at Cincinnati
After starting the season a surprising 3-1, the Bengals have
dropped four straight games, three of which were at home.
The Giants have struggled with leads in the past three
weeks, but did enough to either come back or hold on to win two of those games.
It’s also a popular observation that the Eli Manning-led Giants play better on
the road than at home. This year they are 3-1 on the road (including an impressive
23-point victory over the 49ers) and 3-2 at home.
Manning has reportedly talked to his brother Peyton, who
just led the Broncos to victory over the Bengals last week. That is a nice edge
to have.
New York Giants win.
Tennessee at Miami
Last week was the fifth time this season the Titans have
lost a game by at least three touchdowns, losing to the Bears 51-20. It was
also the seventh time this year the team has allowed at least 30 points, a
pretty alarming number.
Week 1 starting quarterback Jake Locker makes his return
from injury and he’s going up against a porous Miami pass defense that allowed
a rookie single-game record 433 yards to Andrew Luck last week.
But the Dolphins biggest loss was 20 points in Week 1.
They’re three other losses have been by an average of three points per game.
Two of those losses happened in overtime. If nothing else, this team has been
competitive all year.
The same can’t be said for the Titans.
Miami wins.
Detroit at Minnesota
After their bye week in Week 5, the Lions are 3-1. In that
same time frame, the Vikings—who started the season a surprising 4-1—have lost
three of their past four games.
The Vikings gave up 30 or more points in each of their past
two games—both losses—and in all of their past three losses.
The Lions have the most passing yards per game in the NFL
and Mikel Leshoure put together an impressive three touchdown performance last
weekend, making the Lions less one-dimensional.
Christian Ponder has cooled off from his hot start. He’s
completed less than 55 percent of his pass in the past three games, has thrown
for fewer than 64 yards in two of his past three games and has thrown at least
one interception in five consecutive games.
Detroit wins.
Buffalo at New England
The last time these two teams met was in Week 4 in Buffalo.
The Bill blew a 21-7 lead, eventually losing the game 52-28. The
Patriots—usually a passing offense—had not just one but two running backs rush
for over 100 yards on the day.
The Bills have lost three of their next four games after that
contest. The Patriots won three of their next four games.
New England wins.
Atlanta at New Orleans
Yes, the Falcons are undefeated. But after a very rough go
to the beginning of the season the Saints have won three of their past games
and have shown some of the offensive efficiency they’ve come to be known for,
averaging 31.3 points per game in those wins. Two of those victories also came
at home.
It’s extremely difficult to go undefeated for an entire NFL
season and the Falcons have a hard time beating the Saints. They lost both
games against New Orleans last year and are 2-10 against the Saints since 2006.
Good opportunity for an Atlanta letdown here.
New Orleans wins.
San Diego at Tampa Bay
Kudos to Greg Schiano. He’s got the Buccaneers looking like
a competitive team; they are a .500 team that hasn’t lost a game by more than a
touchdown.
And you can’t talk about the Bucs—winners of three of their
past four games—without mentioning Doug Martin’s monster game last weekend. He
had 251 yards on 25 carries and scored four touchdowns (he also caught four
passes for 21 yards).
The Chargers have lost three of their past four games and
four of their past six. Norv Turner’s job security is once again under
question, maybe more so than ever before.
Tampa Bay wins.
Denver at Carolina
Peyton Manning may not be as good as before his injury, but
he still is one of the best in the league. Manning is first in the league in
quarterback rating and completion percentage, third in touchdowns and fifth in yards.
He’s clicking with Demaryius Thomas, who’s enjoying the best
season of his career already with 201 more receiving yards than his previous
career high and just as many touchdowns as his personal best. Also, just
halfway into the season Eric Decker is only 29 yards away from his receiving
yards total from last year and one touchdown away from matching his 2011 total.
Carolina does have a good pass defense. The Panthers are 12th
in the league in passing yards allowed per game and tied for seventh in sacks.
The story all season however has been Cam Newton’s
struggles. He’s only completing 57 percent of his passes (down from 60 percent
last season), has eight interceptions to six touchdown passes for a worse
touchdown-to-interception ratio than last year and already has one more fumble
than last season. His quarterback rating is down 6.8 points as well.
The Panthers are fourth in the NFC and tied for 11th in the
NFL in giveaways. The turnovers, much like last season, are proving to be very
costly.
Denver wins.
Oakland at Baltimore
The Raiders are 2-2 at home this year and 1-3 on the road.
At home they average 26.5 points per game and their margin of defeat is nine
points per game. On the road they average 16.3 points per game and lose by an
average of 18.7 points per game.
And they will be without both Darren McFadden and Mike
Goodson this week, the team’s top two running backs.
The Ravens are coming off a bye week, giving them more time
to focus on the Raiders and get their defense a little bit healthier.
Baltimore wins.
New York Jets at Seattle
It’s well-known that the Seahawks play well at home. This
year is no different as they are currently 4-0 at home.
The Jets are 1-2 on the road.
Both teams fare well against the pass, with the Jets ranking
sixth in the league in passing yards allowed per game and the Seahawks seventh.
The Jets however are 29th in the NFL in rushing yards
allowed per game while the Seahawks—with many thanks to Marshawn Lynch—are seventh
in the league in rushing yards per game.
Expect the Seahawks to continue to pound the ball with Lynch
and wear down the Jets defense.
Seattle wins.
Dallas at Philadelphia
Two teams with lofty expectations that have more than underwhelmed
this season.
The Eagles have looked miserable lately, losing four in a
row. But two of their three wins have come at home, and they did come against
top teams in the Ravens and Giants.
The Cowboys have lost four of their past five games, but two
of their wins have come on the road, one of which was opening night of the
season against the Giants.
So what’s the edge in this one?
It could come down to turnovers and who takes advantage of
the other team’s mistakes. The Eagles have been heavily criticized for the
amount of turnover they have surrendered this season, but the Cowboys are
actually tied for first in the NFC in takeaway with the Eagles. And the Cowboys
are also dead last in the NFC (tied for second to last in the NFL) in
takeaways. Will they be able to capitalize on any Philadelphia mistakes?
Philadelphia wins.
St. Louis at San Francisco
The Rams margin of defeat has increased in each of the team’s
three consecutive losses, culminating in the Week 8 loss to the Patriots, 45-7.
The 49ers have owned the NFC West in recent history. This
year they are 2-0 against the division. Since 2009 they are 16-4. Since 2006
they are 25-13 against the division. And they only won the division once in
that time frame.
San Francisco wins.
Houston at Chicago
The biggest showdown of the week is on Sunday night when two
7-1 teams meet.
Houston and Chicago are No. 2 and 3 in points per game. The
Bears are also second in the league in points per game allowed while the Texans
are fourth.
The difference here will be the pass rush and the play of
the offensive line.
Both teams have done a good job getting to the quarterback,
tied for third in sacks with 25. But Chicago’s offensive line has done a
terrible job protecting Jay Cutler.
The Bears have given up the third most sacks in the NFL with
28. The Texans are tied for the penultimate position in that category, allowing
only 10 sacks all season.
J.J. Watt has been a monster all season, getting to the
quarterback and disrupting passes. He should be able to get into Cutler’s
psyche from the very beginning.
Houston wins.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh
It doesn’t seem to matter whether Matt Cassel or Brady Quinn
is quarterbacking the Chiefs, they just can’t get it done. They run the ball
well—third in the NFL in rushing yards per game—but that does you no good when
you’re constantly playing catch-up.
The Steelers have won three consecutive games and Ben
Roethlisberger is having one of his best seasons ever.
Pittsburgh wins.
Bye week: Cleveland, Green Bay, Arizona, Washington
Week 8 record: 8-6
Season: 81-50
